After Barack Obama’s sizable win in North Carolina and virtual tie in Indiana, it’s the question on the tip of every political tongue this morning: will Hillary Clinton continue her campaign–and, if so, for how long? Last night, the Clinton camp had two goals: either a) make massive gains in the delegate and/or popular-vote tallies, where Obama holds solid advantages or b) perform well enough–perhaps with a win on Obama’s home turf in North Carolina–to sow further doubts about his electability among the remaining superdelegates. Clinton accomplished neither. In Indiana and North Carolina, Obama racked up a net gain of 15 pledged delegates and about 210,000 votes, enough to pretty much erase Clinton’s Pennsylvania advances (12 delegates, about 214,000 votes). And the climb only gets steeper from here. The remaining six primaries–West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, South Dakota, Montana and Puerto Rico–award a total of 217 delegates. Assuming that Clinton wins 60 percent of those delegates and Obama only 40 percent–a very generous assumption, given that the Illinois senator is heavily favored in Oregon, South Dakota and Montana–Clinton will close out regulation with 1,823 delegates to Obama’s 1,932. That means that he’ll need 93 (or 35 percent) of the remaining superdelegates to reach 2,025 and clinch the nomination; she’ll need 202, or 76 percent. The problem? Despite Rev. Wright, Bittergate and three consecutive major primary losses, Obama has picked up 100 superdelegates since Super Tuesday–and Clinton has swayed fewer than 15. Robbed of any momentum she had going into last night–and with Obama arguing that his strong showing demonstrates his durability–it’s almost impossible to imagine her reversing that trend now.
Still, the senator from New York looks likely to soldier on. As I flew from Raleigh to New York this morning, Team Clinton worked diligently to regain its footing. Confirming rumors about the campaign’s flagging financial health, Clinton aide Howard Wolfson admitted during a media conference call that Clinton had given herself a series of new loans that (unlike her first $5 million bail out back in February) were probably drawn from her joint assets with Bill–$5 million on April 11, $1 million on May 1 and $425,000 on May 5, for a grand total of $11.4 million. Meanwhile, at least one high-profile Clinton superdelegate supporter–former presidential candidate George McGovern–switched his allegiance to Obama and called on her to drop out. But the Clintonites seemed undaunted. On the call, chief strategist Geoff Garin called Indiana “a close outcome, but an outcome about which we feel very, very good”; suggested that Clinton had made “progress” in North Carolina; and continued to stress the candidate’s strength among blue-collar voters, which he now explicitly called the “white electorate.” A half-hour later, Obama’s staff and supporters made sure to remind reporters on a conference call of their own that Clinton has no “legitimate” mathematical path to the nomination; that Obama’s performance among working-class voters actually improved in yesterday’s primaries; and even that the much-discussed “Limbaugh Effect” may have accounted for Clinton’s narrow, 18,000-vote margin in the Hoosier State. But not one of them was willing to say she should quit. “It would be inappropriate and awkward and wrong for any of us to tell Senator Clinton when it is time for the race to be over,” said Sen. Claire McCaskill of Missouri, a prominent Obama supporter. “This is her decision and it is only her decision… What we don’t want to do right now is be disrespectful.”
And that’s as it should be. At a stop this afternoon in Shepherdstown, W.Va.–hastily scheduled at 3:00 a.m. last night to quiet speculation that her withdrawal is imminent–Clinton told the crowd that she will run “until there’s a nominee.” But her stump speech had changed since Indiana and North Carolina. Gone were the gas-tax broadsides–and the hard contrasts with Obama. This was her straightforward economic pitch, plain and simple. In his forward-looking address last night at Raleigh’s Reynolds Coliseum, Obama focused most of his fire on John McCain–and seemed to offer Clinton something of a truce. “This has been one of the longest, most closely fought contests in history,” he said. “And that’s partly because we have such a formidable opponent in Senator Hillary Clinton. Tonight, many of the pundits have suggested that this party is inalterably divided–that Senator Clinton’s supporters will not support me, and that my supporters will not support her. Well, I’m here tonight to tell you that I don’t believe it… This primary season may not be over, but when it is… we intend to march forward as one Democratic Party, united by a common vision for this country.” Unable “to sustain a full-out, combative campaign – to stay on offense, and to raise the money it takes to do so,” as Ben Smith puts it–Clinton seems to have accepted his offer. As she said last night, apropos of nothing, “No matter what happens, I will work for the nominee of the Democratic Party.” The harsh attacks may well be over.
For the remainder of the month, then, expect Clinton to continue her twilight campaign. She’s promised to run until every state votes, and until the question of Florida and Michigan is resolved, which won’t happen until the DNC’s Rules Committee meets on May 31. I imagine she’ll keep those promises. Until then, let’s all relax. With more votes and more delegates than any Democratic or Republican runner-up in American history, Clinton has every right to reach the finish line. And as long as she continues to make her own case, as she did today in Shepherdstown–and doesn’t attempt to destroy Obama–it probably behooves the 51 percent of the party that supports her rival to respect the 49 percent that doesn’t.
UPDATE, 3:34 p.m.: The Atlantic’s Marc Ambinder has “seven reasons why Clinton should stay in the race”–and “seven reasons why Clinton should quit, now.” All 14 of them are smart, so you should definitely take a look.
Two excerpts:
Stay # 4. The Ask. Does Clinton want to be Obama’s vice president? Who knows? But does Clinton want to be asked whether she wants to be his vice president and thus be in a position to decline it? Surely. The more Obama is reminded that Clinton cannot not be dispensed with, the more pressure he will feel to at least solicit her views on the subject of the vice presidency.
Go # 1. It’s over. Forget the sideshows and the hypotheticals. Once the party has its nominee, and only then, can the process of healing begin. The longer Clinton stays in the race, the more she postpones the point at which the party comes together.
